Channel sentiment on the U.S. economy split further in Q2 2026, as "strong" views slipped to 36% while "neutral" climbed to 29%—a sign that ITSPs are returning to ambivalence rather than picking a side. Meanwhile, twelve-month outlook held its ground, with optimism steady at 48% for a third straight quarter, even as the economic picture beneath it shifted.
Oil prices continue to impact more ITSPs in the second quarter of the year, now touching 83% of ITSPs with major impact climbing from 30% to 35%. The war in the Middle East added further weight, as those "very concerned" ticked down slightly to 31% but "somewhat concerned" grew to reach half of all respondents—worry didn't fade, it just shifted.
Tariff sentiment stayed stuck in negative territory, now with 42% citing a negative impact on their business, easing only slightly from Q1's 44%. The 12-month trade policy outlook told a similar story, holding negative at 37%.
Cost absorption dropped slightly—25% now absorbing tariff costs fully, down from 28% in Q1—while the share passing costs on to customers rebounded. Higher COGS remains the dominant pain point for tariff impacts at 68% of ITSPs reporting as the top negative, and customer pricing regained its #3 spot among the most-impacted business areas, tied with supply chain continuity concerns at 41%.
The second quarter closed with the channel still caught between resilience and unease—optimism intact, but the ground underneath it growing more contested.
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