Channel sentiment around tariffs and trade policy shifted again in November as uncertainty re-emerged across several indicators. After showing clarity in October, overall economic sentiment returned to an indecisive posture. This reversal suggests that while some stability had begun to take shape earlier in the fall, ITSPs are once again weighing mixed signals in the broader economic environment.
Forward-looking confidence also weakened. Optimism about the economic outlook over the next 12 months dropped to 43%, marking one of the lowest readings of the year. This softening indicates that short-term volatility continues to influence long-term expectations, despite earlier signs of an improving outlook. Similarly, negative views on long-term tariff impacts now outpace optimism, highlighting increasing skepticism that current trade pressures will ease or become more predictable. This shift represents a notable cooling from optimism in early fall.
Opinions on business trade policy impacts followed a similar trend. Positive outlooks among ITSPs fell to 38%, the lowest level recorded this year. This decline points to rising concerns about how current and future trade policies may influence competitiveness, pricing flexibility, and operational decisions.
As the holidays approach, a high of 28% of ITSPs report making no supply changes in response to tariffs. This stabilization may signal that organizations are holding steady rather than taking on risk ahead of peak seasonal demand, prioritizing continuity over further tactical adjustments.
November’s trends reveal a channel that is returning to a mixed outlook last seen in late summer. While optimism dominated earlier in the year, current sentiment reflects a more cautious assessment. Even so, ITSPs continue to adapt strategically, as they strive to navigate ongoing tariff pressures and an increasingly complex economic landscape.
GTIA Members: Read the November GTIA Economic Tracker on the Member Portal.
