Channel sentiment about the U.S. economy remained mostly conflicted in September, with some numbers up, some down. The volatility month over month is indicative of the unpredictability and uncertainty that has characterized the economy, tariff impact and much of the business landscape for the past year.
After nearly a 10-point drop in positive sentiment between July and August, the percentage of ITSPs that said the U.S economy was strong in September climbed back up by half, from 39% to 44%. That is still down from the high of 49% positive sentiment from July (GTIA began tracking sentiment in May). Meantime, the percentage of ITSPs that viewed the state of the overall economy as weak decreased to 36% from 40% the month prior. The remainder took a neutral stance. The slight interest rate cut made by the Federal Reserve in September could be one factor for some of the renewed optimism, at least at a macroeconomic level.
Now for the downswings. ITSP’s viewpoints about the impact of U.S.-based tariff and trade policy took a more pessimistic turn. The percentage of respondents that said tariffs had a positive impact on their business in September declined from 41% in August to 36%. Both those numbers are down from a high of 50% in July.
Looking ahead to the next 12 months, respondents are more wary. ITSPs that said they anticipate negative consequences from tariffs over the next year rose sharply from 29% to 38% month over month. One of main concerns about tariffs is navigating how cost increases to goods and other supplies will dictate changes to pricing structures. In September, 67% of ITSPs said they have been passing the cost of tariffs onto their customers in terms of higher prices on products and services sold, up slightly from 64% in August. At the same time, 54% of ITSPs say that one of the top negative impacts of tariffs in September was customers cutting back on tech spending. That’s up from 48% in August.
Key Points:
- Positive economic sentiment regained half of its August loss. The percentage of channel firms that rated the overall U.S. economy as strong rose from 39% to 44% month over month.
- Looking ahead 12 months, the slight rise in optimism continued, with 49% taking a positive view of the U.S. economy, up from 43%.
- Slightly more ITSPs (67% vs. 64% month over month) are passing costs of goods increases caused by tariffs and inflation onto customers with higher pricing in September.
- 41% of ITSPs whose business has been hurt by tariffs say the levies are degrading the overall U.S. market for tech sales.
- The business areas most impacted by tariffs specifically remain consistent month over month and include hardware costs, customer pricing and supply chain continuity.
GTIA Members: Read the September GTIA Channel Economic Tracker in the Member Portal.
